Cubs vs. Cardinals Prediction: Why the Over 8 Is the Smart Money Play at Wrigley
The Chicago Cubs are rolling, and they're set to welcome the St. Louis Cardinals to Wrigley Field on Friday afternoon with a chance to tighten their grip on the National League wild card race. The Cubs have won eight of their last 10 games, holding a six-game lead for the top wild card spot and sitting just four games back in the NL Central. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are scrapping for the final wild card berth, three games behind the Philadelphia Phillies.
This is a classic showdown of momentum versus desperation, and the betting odds reflect it. The Cubs are heavy favorites at -182 on the moneyline, and the total is set at 8 runs. Here's the breakdown for the Friday matinee.
Cardinals vs. Cubs Odds and Run Line
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook:
- Run Line: Cardinals +1.5 (-142), Cubs -1.5 (+118)
- Moneyline: Cardinals +169, Cubs -182
- Total: 8 (Over -109, Under -110)
The market is telling you one thing: the Cubs are the better team, and they're at home. But the real value here is on the total.
Probable Pitchers: Liberatore vs. Holmes
- St. Louis: Matthew Liberatore (5-9, 5.15 ERA)
- Chicago: Clay Holmes (4-5, 2.86 ERA)
Liberatore has faced the Cubs three times this season, winning just one. His 5.15 ERA is ugly, and he's allowed 20 home runs in 23 appearances. Since June 1, his ERA balloons to 6.10. He's given up four or more runs in 12 of his 23 outings. This is a pitcher who is getting hit hard and often.
Holmes, the Cubs' trade deadline acquisition, is coming off a rough return from a fibula fracture. He allowed four runs in four innings against the Kansas City Royals in his last start. His advanced metrics (4.23 expected ERA) suggest he's been luckier than good. The Cubs are hoping he settles in, but Friday could be another bumpy ride.
Best MLB Prop Bet: Alex Bregman to Go Deep
Alex Bregman is on fire, and the price is too good to pass up. At +599, Bregman to hit a home run is the play of the day.
The three-time All-Star has four home runs in his last six games, hitting .375 with a 1.339 OPS in that stretch. Over his last 25 games, he's got seven homers with a .304 average and .965 OPS. He's raised his season total from nine to 16 home runs in that span.
Now he faces Liberatore, a lefty with a 5.15 ERA who has served up 20 long balls this season. Bregman hits lefties well (.270 average, .795 OPS) and is 3-for-7 career against Liberatore with two doubles and a homer. At nearly 6-to-1 odds, this is a value bet if there ever was one.
Cubs vs. Cardinals Prediction: Take the Over 8
The Cardinals have hit the UNDER more than any team in baseball this season. But trends are meant to be broken, and this pitching matchup screams runs.
Liberatore and the Cardinals have combined for 10 runs in each of his last two starts. The Cubs are the No. 1 offense in MLB in Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+). Holmes is still shaking off rust from a major leg injury. The total of 8 is simply too low for two shaky arms on a Friday afternoon at Wrigley.
Pick: OVER 8 (-109 at DraftKings)
This is a game where the bats should do the talking. The Cubs are a legitimate World Series contender, and the Cardinals are fighting for their playoff lives. Expect fireworks.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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