Baylor Football at the Crossroads: Can Dave Aranda Survive?
Baylor football is staring down a make-or-break season. They need to win, and they need to win right now. If they don't, the consequences will be severe. Head coach Dave Aranda is sitting on a hot seat that could boil over before the leaves turn. A losing record means he and his staff will be looking for new jobs. That's the hard truth in Waco.
The New Reality of College Football
Winning a conference championship isn't what it used to be. Once upon a time, it was the crowning achievement for most schools. But in today's game, priorities have shifted. Teams are now laser-focused on making the College Football Playoff. Winning the conference helps, sure, but it's just one piece of the puzzle. For Baylor, the question is: How close are they to that prize?
Recapping a Disappointing 2025
Last season was a bitter pill. Baylor finished 5-7 overall, with a 3-6 conference record. They managed to beat only four teams in the standings: Oklahoma State, Colorado, West Virginia, and UCF. The highlight was an overtime win over SMU in early September. But the lowlights piled up fast. Losses to TCU, Arizona, and Arizona State stung. They salvaged wins over Kansas State and an Oklahoma State team that went winless in conference play. Baylor chose to keep their coaching staff intact for one more run. Now it's time to deliver.
What's New in Waco?
The biggest change is under center. Baylor doesn't land five-star recruits often, but DJ Lagway is a game-changer. He was the crown jewel of the transfer portal this offseason. Lagway gives the Bears a high-upside quarterback with a ceiling that could exceed Sawyer Robertson's. He'll be backed by a potentially strong ground game, though the receiving corps is green. On defense, tackle Hosea Wheeler is the anchor, with help from Travion Barnes and Garrick Ponder. Those three should give Aranda a solid foundation.
How Close Are They Really?
There is a path to competing for a conference championship in 2026. It's not the most likely outcome, but if Lagway lives up to the hype, anything is possible. The more realistic scenario is that this season sets the foundation for a big 2027. By then, Lagway would be in his second year, and his receivers and offensive line should be more settled. But the answer could change fast. If Baylor stumbles to another losing season, the coaching staff will be cleaned out, and key players will hit the transfer portal. That would kill any momentum and set the program back two or three years.
The Bottom Line
A bounce-back season that saves Aranda's job and keeps Lagway in Waco? That could put Baylor in position to compete at the top of the conference in 2027. But first, they have to prove they can win now. The clock is ticking.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will Dave Aranda be fired if Baylor has a losing season in 2026?
Yes, a losing record in 2026 would almost certainly cost Dave Aranda his job, along with most of his coaching staff.
How good is DJ Lagway?
DJ Lagway is a former five-star recruit who transferred from Florida. He has a high ceiling and is considered a potential game-changer for Baylor's offense.
Can Baylor win the Big 12 in 2026?
It's a long shot, but not impossible. If Lagway performs well and the defense holds up, Baylor could surprise. The more realistic target is 2027.