NFL Week 6 arrives with a stack of anytime touchdown props priced wrong, and according to Covers.com, the value this week comes from injuries, shifting offensive roles, and soft matchups. The betting market is slow. Sharp bettors who do their homework are not.
Covers.com published its full slate of Week 6 anytime touchdown scorer picks on October 16, 2026, using probabilities from Kalshi, one of the top prediction market apps in the country. After a rough Week 5, the column stands at 18-53 on the season for minus 4.41 units. That is the honest scorecard. Here are the picks that matter.
Which tight ends offer the best Week 6 touchdown value?
Brenton Strange of the Jaguars gets a green grade at 20.1%. The Texans defense ranks in the bottom half in EPA per dropback, and Strange has drawn eight targets in back-to-back weeks. Nobody seeing six or more targets should be priced at 4.8x or longer, Covers.com argued, and Strange is the clear No. 2 option in the Jacksonville passing game despite some ugly goal-line running back usage.
Over in Indianapolis, Tyler Warren sits at 38.6% after adding a fourth-down, one-yard rushing touchdown last week while leading the team with nine targets. Warren has scored in three of five games, his touchdown bets have returned a 78% ROI, and the Colts have three secondary starters on the early-week injury report with safety Kevin Winston Jr. doubtful. Covers.com says buy this to 2.4x.
Tyler Higbee of the Rams is at a three-week price high of 3.6x. He has five or more catches in three straight games and 18 grabs for 212 yards since Week 3, while the Cardinals are one of just two teams allowing 70-plus receiving yards and 0.80-plus touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends.
Rookie receivers are the Week 6 money makers
Jalen Coker of the Panthers is the classic post-bye play at 24.4%. He was a full participant Wednesday after missing Week 4, and his two full games this year produced lines of 8/138/2 and 8/66/0 with five red-zone targets, more than Tetairoa McMillan. Carolina also gets the rest advantage with Philadelphia returning from London.
Germie Bernard gets a green grade at 22.7%. With Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek, and Michael Pittman out, Bernard becomes the WR2 in Pittsburgh, and Aaron Rodgers has talked up the rookie publicly. When Wilson exited last week, Bernard played 93% of the snaps and posted a 6/80/0 line on a team-high nine targets. Covers.com says a WR2 in this offense should be priced shorter than 4x, not the 4.35x on the board Friday.
Jalen Royals of the Chiefs is the value play of the week at 18.2%. With Rashee Rice still not practicing after the Week 5 bye and Tyquan Thornton gone, Royals should see 70% of the snaps against a Chargers defense with six starters listed as questionable. He should be priced at 4x, not the 5.5x available Friday.
Kyle Williams of the Patriots sits at 16.7% but was available at 6x midweek against a fair price around 5x, per Covers.com. Williams posted 91 yards and a touchdown on three targets, and with Mack Hollins out, he gets his chance to stretch a Jets defense facing the league's No. 1 offense in EPA per dropback over the last two weeks.
For a broader look at the market,