Bombshell Poll: Trump’s MAGA Base Cracks as Midterms Loom

A new Washington Post-Ipsos poll reveals President Trump’s approval rating stuck at 37 percent, with even his most loyal supporters losing steam. Among Republican-leaning independents, approval has slipped to 52 percent, while 81 percent of Republicans overall still back him. The numbers signal trouble for the GOP ahead of November’s midterms.

What’s Driving the Decline?

The economy and the Iran war are dragging Trump down. Only 33 percent approve of his handling of the economy, and just 29 percent back his conduct of the war. Immigration remains a relative bright spot at 40 percent approval, though that’s down from 50 percent at the start of his term.

Two-thirds of Americans expect the economy to worsen over the next year. Only 40 percent believe they can improve their standard of living, compared to 65 percent in 2018. A record 43 percent say they are “not as well off” as when Trump returned to office, a 12-point jump since February.

Groceries and Gas: The Pain Points

Two-thirds of Americans say groceries are unaffordable, up sharply from 45 percent before the Iran war began in February. Gas prices average $3.89 a gallon, down from a May peak of $4.56 but still well above the $2.93 pre-war level. Trump has promised that ending the Iran conflict will bring prices down, but roughly 6 in 10 Americans doubt it.

Tax Cuts Not Landing

Republicans have rebranded last year’s tax legislation as the “working families tax cut,” but the pitch isn’t working. Only 19 percent say they paid less in taxes, while 25 percent think they paid more, 25 percent see no difference, and 30 percent aren’t sure. The Treasury Department says 97 percent of filers got a cut, but the message isn’t getting through.

Iran War: A Growing Liability

The war, once predicted to be brief, has dragged on for five months. Two-thirds of Americans lack confidence that military action and negotiations will stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. 68 percent say the war hasn’t been worth fighting, compared to 28 percent who say it has. Just over half of Americans say U.S. leadership has weakened under Trump, while 29 percent say it has strengthened.

What’s at Stake?

Trump’s disapproval rating sits at 61 percent, statistically unchanged from previous surveys. Republican majorities in both the House and Senate are at risk in November, a shift that would hamper Trump’s agenda and reshape governing dynamics in Washington. The poll was conducted July 8-13 among 2,648 U.S. adults, with a margin of error of plus or minus 1.9 percentage points.

FAQ: Key Questions About the Poll

Is Trump’s base really crumbling?

Among Republican-leaning independents, approval has slipped to 52 percent, but 81 percent of Republicans overall still back him. The base is cracking, not collapsing.

What’s the biggest issue hurting Trump?

The economy and the Iran war are the top drags. Only 33 percent approve of his handling of the economy, and 29 percent approve of his war conduct.

Can Republicans win the midterms?

Republican majorities in both chambers are at risk, but the election is still months away. The poll shows a tough road ahead.