Americans will vote in Tuesday's midterm election facing the highest fuel prices ever recorded on an election day, a sharp break from President Donald Trump's 2024 promise to cut gasoline below $2 a gallon within his first year in office.
The national average for regular gasoline stood at $4.20 a gallon on Friday, nearly 40% above the same period last year, according to CNBC. Diesel, the fuel that moves American agriculture and freight, has surged about 70% over the past year to $6.32 a gallon.
Why Gas and Diesel Prices Keep Climbing
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, said prices have never been this high this late in the year. During the 2022 midterms, when Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered an energy crisis, retail gas averaged $3.80 a gallon, according to AAA data cited by CNBC.
The spike traces back to February 28, when Trump launched a joint attack on Iran with Israel. Tehran retaliated with strikes on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, choking the world's most important oil shipping lane. Houthi attacks on Saudi refineries and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have compounded the squeeze.
As The Associated Press reported, the war with Iran has now stretched nearly eight months, and Trump has struggled to contain the energy fallout as markets brace for a possible new round of fighting after Tuesday's vote. Brent crude is up more than 13% in October, and West Texas Intermediate has climbed 15%.
Trump's Answer: This Is the Price of Stopping Iran
At a rally in Michigan last Sunday, Trump told voters that rising fuel prices are a 'small price to pay' to keep a nuclear weapon out of the hands of the Iranian regime. The White House is standing firm on that framing.
'Once this conflict comes to an end, gas prices will drop drastically, and the Iranian terrorist regime will not have a nuclear weapon,' White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers said in a statement.
The White House also noted that inflation-adjusted gas prices have been higher around previous election days. Trump has said he will not resume strikes on Iran before the midterms, but the market is pricing in the risk of renewed conflict once voting ends.
Diesel Is Squeezing Iowa Farmers
The real political damage is showing up in farm country. Diesel costs are hammering agricultural states like Iowa, which has backed Trump overwhelmingly in his presidential campaigns. The Senate race in the Hawkeye State has tightened.
Trump briefly considered a diesel export ban after Senator Chuck Grassley, the Iowa Republican, lobbied hard for relief for his state's farmers. He rejected the idea because it could have pushed gasoline prices even higher.
Instead, Trump issued an executive order allowing truckers to run tax-exempt, offroad diesel on U.S. highways and announced an $8 billion relief program for farmers hit by high fuel costs.
He also struck a controversial deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin for Moscow to export roughly 6 million barrels of diesel into the global market through November. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and some Republican senators blasted the agreement as rewarding Russian aggression. Energy analysts told CNBC the volumes are too small against global demand to move prices meaningfully.
Big Oil Banks Record Profits While Drivers Pay
ExxonMobil CEO Darren Woods told CNBC on Friday that diesel is 'the key crunch point here because it is so critical to economic growth.' His company posted huge profits thanks to the disruptions, and NBC News reported that ExxonMobil and Chevron both delivered blowout earnings just as Trump has started touting the benefits of higher oil prices.
Airlines have raised fares to cover jet fuel costs, their biggest expense after labor, adding pressure on the inflation fight. Candidate Trump also pledged to cut airfares and housing costs, promises The Guardian reported remain unfulfilled as prices climb across the board.
What Happens After Tuesday
Crude prices are rallying ahead of the election, and analysts see more pain ahead if fighting resumes. De Haan warned that any escalation could put upward pressure on prices right before Thanksgiving, when millions of Americans drive to visit family.
GasBuddy's De Haan said his firm predicted in December that 2026 would be the cheapest year for gas since 2020, and that prediction required no effort from Washington. The war changed that math.
FAQ
What did Trump promise about gas prices in 2024?
Trump told the New York Economic Club in September 2024 that his plan would cut energy prices in half or more within 12 months of taking office, and he repeatedly vowed to get gasoline below $2 a gallon.
How high are gas prices before the 2026 midterm election?
The national average stood at $4.20 a gallon on Friday, October 31, nearly 40% higher than a year earlier, and diesel averaged $6.32 a gallon, up about 70%.
Why did fuel prices rise under Trump?
Prices spiked after the February 28 joint U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, which triggered Iranian retaliation against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and disrupted global oil flows.