The San Diego Padres head into the 2027 offseason carrying more than $1 billion in future salary commitments and a starting rotation full of holes. According to MLB Trade Rumors, the club's 2027 commitments alone sit at $180.1 million, with total future obligations reaching $1.0271 billion.
That is the price of ambition. The Padres went 48-48 in the first half of 2026, then caught fire with a 43-23 second half that earned them the top National League Wild Card. They swept past the Cubs before the Brewers flattened them. Good, but not good enough, again.
The money is already spent
General Manager A.J. Preller locked in the core years ago, and the bills keep arriving. Manny Machado is owed $280 million through 2033. Fernando Tatis Jr. counts for $266 million through 2034. Xander Bogaerts carries $175 million through 2033, Jackson Merrill $135 million through 2034, and Michael King $66 million through 2028.
Add Jake Cronenworth at $48 million through 2030, Joe Musgrove at $20 million through 2027, and the rest of the ledger, and there is not much room left to fix what actually broke. The rotation.
Who is leaving the rotation?
Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize are headed to free agency. Griffin Canning and Lucas Giolito are also effectively gone, since mutual options are paper tricks, not real commitments. MLB Trade Rumors notes it has been more than a decade since both sides picked up a mutual option. They are accounting measures, plain and simple.
King holds a $28 million player option for 2027 and a $30 million option for 2028, and he will surely decline both after a strong year. The Padres must also decide on Nick Pivetta's $14 million club option.
What remains? An on-paper rotation of Musgrove, Randy Vásquez, JP Sears and Jhony Brito. That is not a rotation. That is a prayer.
Musgrove missed all of 2025 and 2026 recovering from Tommy John surgery. He logged three postseason innings this fall, but Preller himself admitted that expecting a full starter's workload next year is probably asking too much, according to MLB.com.
Vásquez posted a decent earned run average while striking out only 14.8 percent of hitters. Among pitchers with at least 140 innings, only Colorado's Tomoyuki Sugano was worse. Sears spent most of 2026 in Triple-A, where his ERA ballooned to 7.49. Brito's 2.97 ERA looked fine, but his 16.2 percent strikeout rate says regression is coming.
Arbitration and non-tender decisions
MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects closer Mason Miller at $8.1 million in arbitration, the biggest raise on the roster. Gavin Sheets projects at $6.5 million, Freddy Fermin at $2.6 million, JP Sears at $2.8 million, Luis Campusano at $1.7 million, and Jeremiah Estrada at $1.3 million.
Bryan Hoeing and Sears are the non-tender candidates. Cutting bait on underperformers is just sound business, something San Diego has been slow to learn.
On the relief side, there is one piece of good news. Manager Craig Stammen said Estrada has resumed throwing off a mound after a right shoulder impingement ended his season, per CBS Sports, and the right-hander should enter the offseason with no limitations.
Can the Padres actually spend?
The great unknown is how much cash the front office gets to work with. Under the late Peter Seidler, payroll climbed every year and peaked in 2023. After his passing, the organization tightened the belt.
The consequences rippled fast. Juan Soto was shipped to the Yankees to cut costs and bring back pitching depth. Trades drained the farm system. Free agent signings continued, but with deferred money, backloaded salaries, opt-outs and mutual option buyouts doing the heavy lifting.
The King and Pivetta deals were backloaded with player opt-outs. The Germán Márquez, Canning and Giolito contracts used mutual option buyouts to push payments down the road. Creative bookkeeping only works for so long. Sooner or later, the bill comes due in full.
An aggressive winter ahead?
Despite the constraints, early signs point to action. FOX Sports reports the Padres may be aggressive early in free agency this offseason, and Sports Illustrated has linked them to a Yankees All-Star while flagging one current player as a likely trade chip.
Preller has never been a man to sit still. With 17 potential free agents on the way out and a rotation in ruins, standing pat is not an option. The Padres have the lineup to contend. Machado, Tatis, Merrill and Cronenworth are not going anywhere.
What they need is pitching, and they need it now. The question is whether ownership writes the check or hands Preller a calculator and a shoestring budget.
Frequently Asked Questions
How much money do the Padres owe in total future commitments?
The Padres carry $1.0271 billion in total future salary commitments, with $180.1 million committed for the 2027 season alone, according to MLB Trade Rumors.
Which Padres pitchers are free agents this offseason?
Walker Buehler, Robbie Ray and Casey Mize are free agents. Griffin Canning and Lucas Giolito are expected to join them, since mutual options are rarely exercised by both sides.
Did the Padres make the playoffs in 2026?
Yes. San Diego finished 91-71, earned the top NL Wild Card, beat the Cubs in the Wild Card round, then lost to the Brewers.
Will Michael King return to the Padres in 2027?
Unlikely. King holds player options of $28 million for 2027 and $30 million for 2028, and he is expected to decline them and test free agency after a strong season.