The NFL packs its bags for Paris in Week 7 of the 2026 season, and Aaron Rodgers has the Pittsburgh Steelers sitting pretty at 4-2 as 3.5-point favorites against the New Orleans Saints on Sunday.
According to Sports Illustrated, Pittsburgh enters the international showdown off a comeback win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6, a 26-19 overtime victory that featured the defense shutting down the Bucs in the second half. The win kept the Steelers in the thick of a crowded AFC North race where all four teams are over .500 through six weeks. In a division with no breathing room, every win counts double.
Steelers vs Saints Odds, Spread and Total for Week 7
Sports Illustrated Betting's latest numbers for the Paris matchup:
- Spread: Steelers -3.5 (-102), Saints +3.5 (-118)
- Moneyline: Steelers -185, Saints +154
- Total: 44.5 (Over -110 / Under -110)
The line has moved a full point in Pittsburgh's favor since opening at 2.5, a sign the betting market smells blood in a bad New Orleans run defense. SI's Iain MacMillan is backing Pittsburgh to cover in Paris, and I'm right there with him.
Why the Steelers Should Cover in Paris
This one is simple, folks. Football is won in the trenches, and the Steelers run game is about to run straight through a Saints defense that cannot stop anybody on the ground.
MacMillan laid it out in his Road to 272 column: Pittsburgh ranks fifth in rush EPA this season, with Jaylen Warren averaging a healthy 5.5 yards per carry. New Orleans, meanwhile, is dead last in both opponent rush EPA and opponent rush success rate, and is surrendering 4.8 yards per rush. That is a mismatch the size of the Seine.
The Steelers' run game against the Saints' run defense will be the biggest difference-maker in this game... If Warren can be effective on the ground, the Saints' offense will struggle to keep pace.
Covers makes the same case from the other side of the counter, noting the Saints are tied for the second-most points allowed per game at 29.7 and that Pittsburgh ranks second in rushing DVOA. When two independent outlets reach the same conclusion, you listen.
Can Tyler Shough Keep Pace With Aaron Rodgers?
Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has moved the ball well in his second NFL season and led New Orleans to a win over the New York Giants last Sunday. But the numbers tell a harsher story: Shough ranks just 20th in success rate among quarterbacks with at least 50 plays in 2026.
Rodgers is not much better on that front, ranking 30th in success rate among the same group of passers. The difference is everything around him. Pittsburgh's defense sits sixth in EPA per play and top 10 in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. New Orleans ranks 27th in EPA per play on defense.
Week 6 proved the formula works. Rodgers and the offense sputtered for most of the day against Tampa Bay, and it did not matter, because the Steelers defense took over the game and won it in overtime. Against a young quarterback like Shough, that defense can short-circuit an entire afternoon.
What a 5-2 Start Means for Pittsburgh's Playoff Hopes
A win Sunday would move Pittsburgh to 5-2 and put Rodgers and company in a strong early position in the AFC playoff picture. The catch is the division itself: with four AFC North teams over .500 through six weeks, nobody in that group can afford a slip against a beatable opponent.
AZCentral's model favors the Steelers by five points on a neutral field, a shade above the 3.5-point spread. The takeaway: the market, the models, and the eyeballs all point the same direction.
Final Score Prediction: Steelers 26, Saints 20
Do not expect a shootout. Pittsburgh has not been a high-scoring team in 2026, and that is not its identity. What the Steelers do is run the ball, play smothering defense, and let the other team beat itself.
New Orleans has one good win this year, over Baltimore, and a pile of questionable losses. The Saints' defense is one of the worst units in football, and it is walking into a matchup designed to expose exactly that weakness.
Steelers 26, Saints 20. Pittsburgh covers, moves to 5-2, and keeps pace in the NFL's toughest division. Rodgers gets his Paris postcard, and Steeler Nation gets another week of first-place football.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER.